The silver bullet

I just received this email from Justin Ruben, MoveOn.org Political Action, the progressive organisation, headed 'Super awesome news'. 

I think we may have just discovered the silver bullet that could help us win the whole election.

Although Justin never actually mentions who he means by 'us', it later becomes apparent that the objective is 'to keep Republicans from stealing the election', so I guess 'we' must be the Democrats, the only electoral force capable of preventing a Republican victory.

I don't think I need to elucidate the chasm between a Democratic electoral campaign and 'the progressive promise of our country'. 

What they are doing is soliciting donations to implement their secret 'new voter turnout method', to be matched by an unnamed 'major partner' to the tune of half a million bucks, and suggesting that this has to happen by tomorrow.

Two weeks ago, we ran a secret test of a new voter turnout method in a state primary election. There were 170,000 voters in the study. We just got back the results, and our new method was 3.7 times more effective, dollar for dollar, than the best techniques used by campaigns today. 

I can't give all the details of what we figured out, because we don't want the other side to know. So this has to be somewhat vague. But basically, we took groundbreaking research from social psychology, and for the first time, applied it to voting. And, wow, it really worked!

So it seems that MoveOn.org considers American progressives, who support the wonderful policies and practices of the Democratic Party, to be a bunch of suckers who will just fork over money on their say so. 

But it gets worse. Leaving aside the little matter of just what they are measuring and what counts as an improvement and how that was determined, remember that the 'new method was 3.7 times more effective, dollar for dollar, than the best techniques used by campaigns today'. They go on to assert:

Let me put that in perspective: Normally, we're delighted if we figure out something that gives us a 10% improvement. This test showed a 370% improvement.

This is sleight of hand, if I can even dignify it as such.

Imagine 100 people would vote if you did nothing. Assume that $1 spent deploying 'the best techniques' provides a 10% 'improvement', so 110 would vote. If the new method is 3.7 times more effective, then spending $1 would result in 137 people voting. Yes, a 37% improvement is very significant and really is 370% as much as a 10% improvement, but it is not a 370% improvement in the number going to the polls, which is what the email suggests.

I'm going to append the full email so you can see just what it says, and importantly, doesn't say, although I can't recommend it. It might or might not be significant that the email is couched in the first person singular, but signed 'Anna, Ilya, Laura, Wes, and the rest of the team', or that while Justin, Political Action, sent it, replies go to Anna Galland, MoveOn.org Civic Action.

Finally, if you have three and a half minutes of your life to squander watching Samuel L Jackson channelling Dr Seuss, this video links from the front page of the MoveOn site. 

Interestingly, it's not a MoveOn production, but funded by the Jewish Council for Education and Research, who use 'humor, viral video, celebrity, and social media to break through the election year clutter and reach millions of voters'. In case you're wondering just how deluded they are,

In foreign affairs, President Obama achieved three important goals: bringing American troops home from Iraq and beginning to exit from Afghanistan, stepping up the fight against Al Qaeda, and restoring America's relationships and reputation among our allies. In the Middle East, the President has backed up his words of support for Israel with an unsurpassed record on issues of security, while balancing American interest in democracy, human rights, and stability as the Arab Spring swept the region. President Obama has organized an unprecedented international coalition and made clear his determination to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. 

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Dear MoveOn member,

I think we may have just discovered the silver bullet that could help us win the whole election.

Two weeks ago, we ran a secret test of a new voter turnout method in a state primary election. There were 170,000 voters in the study. We just got back the results, and our new method was 3.7 times more effective, dollar for dollar, than the best techniques used by campaigns today. Take a look at this simple chart:

Making phone calls |==

Sending mail       |=====

Going door-to-door |=======

OUR NEW METHOD     |=========================

Let me put that in perspective: Normally, we're delighted if we figure out something that gives us a 10% improvement. This test showed a 370% improvement.

This alone could be enough to tip the balance in the Senate, help Democrats win the House—and maybe even flip two or three swing states.

The challenge: We had no idea we'd get such great results, and to have everything ready in time, we need to commit by Monday!! Which means we have to raise a good portion of the entire $3 million budget by then. Arrgh!

But things are suddenly looking up, because at 5 PM on Friday, I got a call from a major partner who's as excited about this project as we are. They're offering to match every dollar donated, up to $500,000, with their own efforts! That means you'll get twice the bang for your buck.

So, whatever you're doing right now, can you take three minutes to make a contribution so that we can use this incredibly powerful new voter turnout method across the country? This is the moment to open up your wallet for this election. Seriously. CODE RED. Please help!

Yes, I will contribute $5 to help us deploy our new voter turnout method in every close race this year!

I don't want to look back on Nov. 7—the day after the election—and think, "If only we had a bit more money in late September, we could've won those two crucial Senate races! Or (God forbid) we could've run up the margin enough to keep Republicans from stealing the election!" And I KNOW you don't want to be thinking, "If only I and a few other people had chipped in the price of a pizza, we'd be celebrating right now!"

So I'm trying to make this as clear as I can. This is the most promising set of test results we've EVER seen at MoveOn. 

I can't give all the details of what we figured out, because we don't want the other side to know. So this has to be somewhat vague. But basically, we took groundbreaking research from social psychology, and for the first time, applied it to voting. And, wow, it really worked!

The question is whether we can raise enough money in the next few days to roll it out nationally. If just 30,000 of us chip in, we can change the outcome of this election. Can you chip in?

Yes, I want to make a donation.

Thanks for all you do.

–Anna, Ilya, Laura, Wes, and the rest of the team

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